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Tail risk and systemic risk of US and Eurozone financial institutions in the wake of the global financial crisis

机译:全球金融危机后,美国和欧元区金融机构的尾巴风险和系统风险

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摘要

We evaluate multiple market-based measures for US and eurozone individual bank tail risk and bank systemic risk. We apply statistical extreme value analysis to the tails of bank equity capital losses to estimate the likelihood of individual institutions' financial distress as well as individual banks' exposure to each other ("spillover risk") and to global shocks ("extreme" systematic risk). The estimation procedure presupposes that bank equity returns are "heavy tailed" and "tail dependent" as identifying assumption. Using both US and eurozone banks allows one to make a cross-Atlantic comparison of tail risks and systemic stability. We also assess to what extent magnitudes of tail risk and systemic risk have been altered by the global financial crisis. The results suggest that both tail risk and systemic risk in the US are higher than in the eurozone regardless of the considered sample period.
机译:我们针对美国和欧元区的个人银行尾部风险和银行系统性风险评估了多种基于市场的措施。我们将统计极值分析应用于银行股权资本损失的尾巴,以估计各个机构的财务困境以及各个银行之间相互承受的风险(“溢出风险”)和全球性冲击(“极端”系统风险)的可能性。 )。估计程序以银行资产收益为“重尾”和“尾随”为前提。同时使用美国和欧元区的银行,可以对大西洋沿岸的尾部风险和系统稳定性进行比较。我们还评估了全球金融危机在多大程度上改变了尾部风险和系统性风险的程度。结果表明,无论考虑的采样期如何,美国的尾部风险和系统性风险均高于欧元区。

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